Portuguese government fails to resist vote of confidence and will leave power

Luís Montenegro lost the vote of confidence, and President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa will have to decide on the dissolution of Parliament and new elections. Portuguese people went to the polls twice in the last three years.

Portugal’s Prime Minister, Luís Montenegro, suffered a defeat in Parliament this Tuesday (11), losing the vote of confidence presented by his government. With the rejection of the motion, his administration will be dissolved, paving the way for the calling of early general elections, marking the third time Portuguese citizens will head to the polls in just over three years.

The motion was rejected with 142 votes against 88, with no abstentions. The decision was driven by the opposition, which raised doubts about Montenegro’s integrity due to his ties to a consulting firm he founded and is now run by his children. Two key opposition parties, the Socialist Party (center-left) and Chega (far-right), played an essential role in the decision.

According to a statement from the Presidency of the Republic, President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa will expedite the necessary procedures and hear party leaders as early as this Wednesday, two days ahead of schedule. Additionally, he will convene the Council of State on Thursday.

A vote of confidence is a mechanism used in parliamentary or semi-parliamentary systems when there is a need to reassess the government. The motion was proposed by Montenegro himself last week, just weeks before completing a year in office, in response to growing concerns about his conduct regarding the consulting firm he founded, Spinumviva.

The opposition accuses Montenegro of using his position to favor his company. Specifically, they point out that Spinumviva received monthly payments of 4,500 euros (approximately R$ 28,000) from Solverde, a casino operator that operates under a state concession. In his defense, the Prime Minister argues that he has declared all his assets and income and denies any wrongdoing or conflict of interest. He also emphasizes that the company holds contracts with other private sector firms.

Montenegro, leader of the Social Democratic Party (PSD), led a minority government and relied on the support of other parties to pass measures and ensure governance. With the rejection of the vote of confidence, the scenario points to new elections, leading the Portuguese to vote once again.

This would be the third legislative election in just over three years. In January 2022, the country elected António Costa, who resigned in November 2023 following a police operation investigating potential irregularities. Then, in March 2024, Montenegro won the election by a narrow margin—less than two thousand votes—over the Socialist Party.

The prospect of political stability remains uncertain. Analysts indicate that another election is almost inevitable but also believe that no party will emerge with a strong enough mandate to ensure long-term governance. Meanwhile, the electorate is showing signs of fatigue and dissatisfaction with the political class.

Political scientist Adelino Maltez, from the University of Lisbon, points out that recent polls show little change in voter preferences since the last election in March 2024. At the time, the Democratic Alliance (AD), a coalition led by Montenegro’s PSD, secured 80 seats in Parliament, while the Socialist Party obtained 78 seats. Portugal’s two main political parties have only formally collaborated in Parliament once, between 1983 and 1985.

Maltez emphasizes that if they do not reach an understanding, the country will continue to face political instability. In his view, the programs of the rival parties have broadly compatible points, which could facilitate a potential agreement.